When determining how much to save by retirement age, several variables must be considered, some requiring estimates that will span decades. Err significantly on those estimates, and you can end up with little or no money left during the later years of your life. Three of the most significant estimating mistakes to watch out for are:

• Underestimating how much income you'll need in retirement. The entire point of your retirement savings is to ensure you have sufficient income to spend your retirement doing the things you plan, so make sure you have a good estimate of how much that will cost. Various rules of thumb indicate you'll need anywhere from 70% to over 100% of your preretirement income. At first glance, it seems like you'll need less than 100%, because work-related expenses, lunches out, expensive clothes, and commuting costs will be gone. But look carefully at your current expenses and how you plan to spend your retirement years before deciding how much you'll need. If you pay off your mortgage, remain in good health, live in a city with a low cost of living, and engage in inexpensive hobbies, you might need less than 100% of your preretirement income. However, if you plan to travel extensively, must pay for health insurance, and carry significant debt, you may find that 100% of your preretirement income is not enough. You need to look closely at your current expenses and planned retirement activities to come up with a reasonable estimate.
• Underestimating how long you'll live. Today, the average life expectancy is 82 years for a 65-year-old man and 85 years for a 65-year-old woman (Source: Journal of Financial Planning, August 2008). But don't just use those figures without further analysis. Average life expectancy means the woman has a 50% chance of dying before age 85 and a 50% chance of living past age 85. Since you can't be sure which will apply to you, you should probably assume you'll live at least a few years beyond your life expectancy. When deciding how many years to add, consider your health and how long other family members have lived.
• Overestimating how much you can withdraw annually from your retirement savings. With a retirement that could span decades, it's important to withdraw a reasonable amount so you don't deplete those savings too soon. A number of factors can make that a difficult number to calculate. First, as noted above, you can't be sure how long you'll be making withdrawals. Live significantly beyond your average life expectancy and you could find yourself with little in the way of savings. Second, inflation over such a long period means you'll have to withdraw increasing amounts just to maintain the same purchasing power. Third, your rate of return on your investments will significantly affect how much you can withdraw annually. When withdrawals are being made, down markets can have a devastating effect on your savings. Not only will your investment value go down, but you will be withdrawing the same amount from a smaller balance. Thus, when the market rebounds, you'll have less capital available to participate in that rebound. Especially if a major market downturn occurs early in your retirement, withdrawing an amount that may have been reasonable during an up market may quickly deplete your assets. Thus, it's generally prudent to keep your withdrawal percentage as low as possible, perhaps 3% or 4% of your balance. With that level of withdrawal, your funds should last for decades.

After earning his BS in Economics from the University of Maryland, College Park, Jack entered the investment business. For over 30 years, Jack has been helping families and businesses throughout the Washington, DC Metropolitan area, and the United States, achieve their financial goals.

Jack lives in Potomac, MD with his wife Toni and their five children.

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